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- I consider “losing less” to still be a win
I consider “losing less” to still be a win
My TSLA loss analysis – when in doubt just get out
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Happy Thursday!
Just as I predicted earlier in the week…inflation is cooling.
This morning’s CPI report showed headline inflation was down YoY (3.2% vs 3.3%) beating expectations by 0.1%, and Core CPI remained stable at 0.2%.
Remember Core CPI is the key. The slight uptick that has many worried about is due almost entirely to housing.
Obviously, the market reacted positively.
Slowing inflation (hopefully) means the Fed isn’t likely to be hiking rates again soon.
I doubt they’ll be cutting right away, but the market’s happy. My guess is that your bullish positions looked A LOT better this morning, though things have cooled off since then.
Whether or not this mini-rally can sustain itself remains to be seen. As of this afternoon, it already seems to be unraveling, and my guess is that we will see continued selling pressure over the next week.
Be careful about making assumptions and throwing on lots of bullish trades. We’re still in a chopfest in what’s seasonally the second worst month for stocks.
It could be a “bull trap."
Uncle Jeff is looking out for you!
✏️Numbers I Need:
This morning’s rally doesn’t change my outlook of “choppy and sloppy” for the near term.
QQQ is back above the critical $372 level but needs to hold.
Folks, one green day is nothing. I’m still leery of big tech until the NASDAQ can prove itself.
As I discussed earlier, the bullish energy trade is still on. 🛢️
That is one sector I am very interested in right now, and you should take a look at.
If you don’t want to sift through the hundreds of oil stocks, you could always trade XLE. Or, if you’re confident enough, ERX, the double-leveraged ticker.
I’ve also got my eye on the biotech sector. 🧬
Sell-offs in overbought sectors like technology, homebuilders, financials, and industrials mean sector rotation.
Institutions rarely pull their money out of the market - they just move it around. It flows into sectors with a lot of potential upside.
Keep an eye on biotech, it may be the next to move up.
⚡Most Exciting Action:
One of the companies that I alerted earlier this week for Alpha Hunter subscribers, Tesla (TSLA), started off great, but then got hammered yesterday.
I wasn’t comfortable with the trade or the market situation
The set-up was right, but choppy markets aren’t easy.
In these conditions, I keep a very tight stop on my trades. I know I’m going to lose sometimes. (Anyone who tells you they don’t is lying through their teeth.)
The key is to keep your losses small so it doesn’t destroy your account.
There are quite a few opportunities still on the radar. But I want to see how the day plays out before I put on any new trades.
I took a loss on the TSLA bull put spread.
It’s not a secret, and it’s logged into my tracking spreadsheet for everyone to see.
*results not typical. Trading is hard
So let me talk you through that loss to see what we can learn.
Remember - analyzing your losers is the key to success.
I am always trying to win, but knowing that I am going to take losses is just part of the game.
Winning the game requires that I keep my losses small though. That is the key.
✅Past Alert Update:
On Monday, TSLA had a major rejection off the -1 Keltner channel, which typically leads to an upward swing back to the mean.
So I alerted subscribers that I had entered a bull put spread.
However, I didn’t like what I saw just a few hours later. There was a broad sell-off on semi-conductor and EV stocks.
This put downward pressure on both QQQ and SPY. And it was spilling over into TSLA.
TSLA was heading quickly toward my short strike at $245, and the charts looked increasingly bearish.
So I got out.
My total loss on the trade was -$600.
Not a big deal, I could have lost MUCH more.
This is why having a stop-loss system in place is critical.
They’re high-percentage trades, but your risk is higher than your potential gain, so when it isn’t going your way. GET THE HELL OUT!
I always say, “Hope and prayer” is the world’s worst trading plan.
When a trade is going against you, ask yourself this:
“If I weren’t in this trade now, would I still place it?”
If you can’t answer yes, then it’s probably time to cut and run.
Want more of these types of ideas and teaching?
By joining Alpha Hunter today, you can follow EXACTLY what I’m looking at and see which trades I’m making!
My goal is simple.
I am trying to make $10,000 in profits each and every month with my Alpha Hunter system.
I don’t care about how many losses I take along the way or how many trades is takes me to do it – I just want to win.
If you want to join me and attack you own goal, this is the perfect place to start.
You will get to see how I look at the market and roll with the punches, every single day.
You will see every trade I am making from start to finish, and have the chance to talk directly with me about them and find out what motivated me to make the trade and also when to close.
All members get exclusive access to:
The Alpha Chamber - Live analysis, trading, and chat
Detailed Trading Plans - Direct to your inbox every single day
Alpha Pulse E-Book - Learn HOW to sell options the right way
Every trade I take via instant app alerts.
So what are you waiting for???
Join the team and let’s do this together!
To your success,
P.S. If you would like to upgrade to Bullseye Trades or “Bullseye Unlimited”, please reach out to Jeff Brown at [email protected] or call him at 800-585-4488.
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