Lilly widens gap with new pen, NVDA investors punch the air

In tonight’s edition, we’ve got Sam Altman sitting on a throne of lies, Nvidia investors punching air, and Eli Lilly revealing the one pen to rule them all… 

Let’s get started…

- “You sit on a throne of lies” - Nvidia investors, probably

About five months ago, Sam Altman had every OpenAI seed investor pounding nose beers after he stood in front of the world and said OpenAI was going to spend $1.4 trillion in infrastructure (read: Nvidia chips) by 2030. Fast forward to today, and it appears @sama lied through his teeth. 

In short, out goes the $1.4 trillion number and in comes $600 billion. That's an $800 billion haircut in the name of premature excitement. If you recall, OpenAI went on an absolute spending spree in the back half of last year, inking multibillion-dollar infra deals with every chipmaker and cloud provider it could find. Altman was out there making $1.4T sound like a down payment. The energy was electric… the bean counters, apparently, were not.

Now the company says the compute target is "roughly $600 billion" through 2030, meant to "more directly tie to expected revenue growth." Which is a very polite way of saying somebody finally did some math and said "oh no." OpenAI is projecting $280 billion in 2030 revenue. For context, they did $13.1 billion in 2025. So they need to 21x revenue in five years.

The burn rate came in slightly better than expected… $8 billion scorched versus a $9 billion target. So they're efficiently lighting money on fire. Progress. Meanwhile, OpenAI is closing a round that could top $100 billion, with Nvidia reportedly dropping up to $30 billion at a $730 billion pre-money valuation. So the company that just cut $800 billion in spending is simultaneously raising the GDP of a mid-sized country. Sounds legit.

That said, ChatGPT hit 900 million weekly active users, and Sam's coding tool Codex crossed 1.5 million weekly actives… going head-to-head with Anthropic's Claude Code, which has been quietly eating its lunch in developer circles.

Now, will the $600B number be enough to seal the AI throne? Who knows. It's still a psychotic amount of money. But when you anchor at $1.4 trillion, $600 billion sounds like fiscal discipline. And maybe that's the whole point. Maybe the $1.4T number was never real. Maybe it was always a fugazi. Spoiler: if you listen closely, you can hear investors wondering, "wait a second, will this thing ever make money?"

- One pen to rule them all

Pour one out for Novo Nordisk, because Eli Lilly just dropped a Kendrick Lamar level diss track in the form of the Zepbound KwikPen… a single pen that holds a full month of doses instead of making patients swap out a new auto-injector every week like they're reloading a Pez dispenser. Four shots, one device. FDA-approved label expansion and everything. Mic = dropped.

Prices for this diabeetus killer start at $299/month for the lowest dose on LillyDirect, Lilly's direct-to-consumer site that has quietly become one of the most important distribution channels in pharma. Days of the insurance middle man and pharmacy line are numbered. Now it's just you, the pen, and a shrinking waist line before summer. Is this really a medical breakthrough? Not really. The main moat here is the UX upgrade. And in the GLP-1 wars, that might matter just as much.

For context, Lilly's been using the KwikPen for Mounjaro (the diabetes sibling) for a while now. They basically copy-pasted the delivery system onto their obesity blockbuster because, well, why wouldn't you? It's the pharmaceutical equivalent of releasing the same iPhone in a new color and watching people line up anyway. Which as we know, is a proven money printer plan (sup, Tim Apple).

That said, this just continues to widen the gap between Lilly and the rest of the plebs. Zepbound has been an absolute monster since hitting the market in late 2023, pulling in $4.2 billion in U.S. revenue last quarter alone… a 122% YoY spike. Lilly has already bodied Novo Nordisk for majority market share in weight loss, and now they're making the product easier to use while Novo is still figuring out how to keep Wegovy on shelves.

Every friction point you remove makes it that much harder for a patient to switch. Meanwhile, LillyDirect keeps getting more interesting. Most pharma companies treat DTC like a marketing channel. Lilly's treating it like an actual business. New product forms, cash-pay pricing, no PBM drama… it's basically the Warby Parker of making you less hungry.

As for the stock, investors are clearly horned up as shares are mooning nearly 5% on the day. Bigly. Sure, the drug is the same… but the execution is transformational. And at the end of the day, this is the kind of smart, boring compounding that reduces churn, improves adherence, and expands the funnel.

The Team at Bullseye Trades