Tesla’s “Little Brother” Misplaces $2.7B, FedEx Smells Refund Blood in the Water

Hey there Folks,

In today’s edition, we’ve got Lucid (once again) proving that can’t survive without their Saudi IV drip, an EV count adjusted like a Tinder bio after three bad dates, and FedEx sprinting to court for tariff refunds as America officially enters its “everyone sues everyone” era.

Let’s get started…

-Public Reminder: just because Saudi royalty keeps wiring you billions… doesn’t mean gravity suddenly stops applying to your income statement. -signed Lucid and LIV Golf.

Fun fact: The PIF has more money than Bezos, Ellison, Gates, and Warren Buffett combined… yet somehow convincing Americans to watch 54 holes of shotgun-start golf remains harder than turning an EV startup profitable.

After widely missing earnings expectations in Q4 2025… the Tesla wannabe (-4%) rolled out a full-court press on “structural progress” and “repeatable operating cadence.” Translation? “We’re losing money. But we’re losing it more efficiently now. Please clap.”

Here’s what actually happened.

Lucid posted $523M in Q4 revenue, beating estimates by about 12%. Full-year revenue jumped 68% to $1.35B. Real growth. Credit where it’s due.

Then came the air leak.

Last month, Lucid said it produced 18,378 vehicles in 2025. This week? Scratch that. It’s 17,840. Why? Because 538 vehicles didn’t complete final validation procedures. Translation: “The cars exist… they just aren’t officially cars yet. Also, have you seen our Timothy Chalamet ad?”

Still, even with the revision, production nearly doubled versus 2024’s 9,000 units. The assembly line is moving (and not like the Nikola moving where it’s actually just rolling downhill).

Now for the grand vision. Lucid says it will produce 25,000 to 27,000 EVs in 2026… a 40% to 50% jump. Interim CEO Marc Winterhoff called it “healthy,” not “outrageous.” In other words: ambitious, but trying not to relive past overpromises.

With PIF playing billionaire life support, Lucid ended the year with $4.6B in liquidity and says it’s funded into early 2027. Sounds great. Small issue? They still lost $2.7B in 2025… including $814M in Q4 alone.

They also cut 12% of U.S. salaried staff to “streamline operations.” Corporate America’s favorite magic trick: disappear the expenses.

The Gravity SUV is expected to drive 2026 volume. A cheaper midsize SUV starts production later this year but won’t move the needle much next year. Robotaxis are in the pipeline.

So here we are. Lucid says production is stabilizing. Margins are improving structurally. Costs are being cut. And profitability remains… somewhere over the horizon.

The real question isn’t whether they can build 27,000 cars. It’s whether they can actually sell them. Welcome to another quarter where Lucid swears it’s on the path to profitability. Wall Street would like to see the map.

-Kid: Mommy, how did we get so rich?

Mom: Because Daddy’s company sued the President over a $1B tariff bill… and his options position turned into a fireworks show when the verdict hit.

Welcome to the most American sequel imaginable: everyone (and I mean EVERYONE) is about to start suing over tariffs.

After the Court yanked the keys to Donnie’s tariff car under the IEEPA, the chase for refunds officially began. And like any great supply-chain story, the invoice is sliding downhill to the last guy holding the clipboard.

Leading the “run me my money” tour is FedEx. The purple-and-orange jumpsuits filed suit against the federal government and CBP, asking for every dollar back from duties now declared legally allergic to the Constitution. Translation: “You charged us. The Court said you couldn’t. Run it back.”

The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority by using IEEPA to impose sweeping global tariffs… including those juicy little de minimis shipments under $800 that used to glide in duty-free. That ruling potentially cracks open refunds on more than $175 billion in collected duties.

Small problem: there is currently no refund process. In Trump’s defense, I guarantee you he didn’t even think this whole Supreme Court reversing his tariffs was even a possibility.

And get this, before FedEx even filed its suit… one of its own customers sued them (spiderman meme intensifies).

Hali Anastopoulo, a South Carolina freight forwarder and customs broker, filed a class action seeking over $5 million in repayment of duties, interest, and related costs. The allegation? FedEx retroactively billed customers weeks after shipments had cleared… passing through tariffs that, as the lawsuit argues, were unlawful from the jump.

The complaint basically says: “Your contract lets you collect lawful duties. These weren’t lawful. Cut the check, and STAT.”

FedEx says it’s protecting its rights as importer of record and previously warned tariffs could dent profits by up to $1 billion this fiscal year. Investors responded by… bidding the stock slightly higher. Because if there’s one thing Wall Street respects, it’s a company aggressively chasing its cash.

Meanwhile, U.S. Customs stopped collecting IEEPA duties. Unfortunately, nobody installed the returns desk.

The Team at Bullseye Trades