This math isn’t mathing 🧩

I had to check the numbers twice

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Good morning, Folks, Jeff Bishop here,

Imagine buying a safe filled with $35 million.

Now imagine paying about $16 million for the entire safe.

Sounds ridiculous, right?

That's the kind of disconnect I stumbled across while researching the biotech stock I'm watching today.

And strangely enough, that's only where the story begins.

Yesterday, shares jumped more than 14%.

At first, I assumed I had simply missed a headline…

But the more I dug into the company, the more I started wondering whether the market was only beginning to catch on.

This biotech has a 71% ownership-stake in a company with an FDA-approved cancer drug on the market that's generating millions in revenue. Not years from now. Today.

It also has another product that's already completed a successful Phase 3 trial — one that targets a painful and expensive medical problem affecting hundreds of thousands of patients every year.

And there's a third pipeline candidate that could become the first FDA-approved prescription treatment in an enormous market that's currently dominated by over-the-counter products.

That’s three legitimate shots on goal 🥅

But what has always struck me about the company is the valuation. The company owns a majority stake in the publicly traded company that I just mentioned.

Based on recent market prices, that stake alone appears to be worth roughly $35 million. Yet the company itself has recently been valued at only around $16 million.

In other words, the market appears to be assigning almost no value to the FDA-approved drug that's already generating revenue.

Almost no value to the Phase 3 program.

And almost no value to the rest of the pipeline.

Now, markets aren't always rational in the short term. Sometimes there's a reason for a disconnect like this.

Other times, it creates the kind of “tactical” opportunity I love looking for.

Meanwhile, the FDA-approved cancer therapy continues to gain traction commercially.

The company recently expanded its nationwide commercial organization, secured broad payer coverage, and management says it's entering an important inflection point as adoption continues to grow.

What we’re staring at, in other words, is a company with a majority stake in an FDA-approved product, growing revenue, multiple late-stage pipeline opportunities, and what appears to be a glaring valuation disconnect…

I think it's worth taking a very close look.

To Your Success,

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